Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight ahead of another exciting weekend of Premier League action.
Opposing goals in matches at Wembley remains a sustainable long-term betting strategy. It might be the mecca of English football - to play there is every footballer's dream - but I'm convinced the place saps the momentum out of a game. Across the last 54 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per game is at 1.93 and 92 per cent of those games have landed for under 3.5 goal backers, which is a 1/2 shot with Sky Bet.
It's Michael Carrick to Manchester United permanently then?
For a club desperately searching for stability, handing the keys to a former player with strong emotional ties to Old Trafford feels like a move driven by nostalgia over cold analysis.
When you dig into the numbers behind Carrick's interim spell, there are enough warning signs flashing to make any punter think twice before buying into the hype.
Results? Excellent. Process? Far less convincing.
Carrick has won 10 of his 15 Premier League games in charge this season, collecting 33 points from a possible 45. Only Manchester City have earned more points in that period and no side has won more matches.
Those numbers scream progress. But dig deeper and it becomes much harder to argue Manchester United are building anything sustainable.
The most revealing metric is expected goals supremacy - the difference between xG created and xG conceded. Under Carrick, United are operating at just +0.1 xG per 90 minutes. That's virtually identical to Ruben Amorim's reign before him, suggesting very little has fundamentally changed in terms of overall performance level.
Across the last eight Premier League matches, only already-relegated Wolves and Burnley own a worse xG supremacy figure than Manchester United at -0.3 per 90. That's a massive red flag for a team supposedly moving in the right direction. I'm happy to take Forest on the double chance to avoid defeat at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
There aren't many players in the Premier League carrying the away threat that Ismaila Sarr is producing right now.
The Crystal Palace forward looks absolutely electric in transition and Brentford's aggressive style should play directly into his hands here.
Sarr has scored 20 goals across all competitions this season and his away numbers are particularly eye-catching. Sarr has netted nine goals in his last nine starts on the road, registering 17 shots on target across those matches.
At 11/4 with Sky Bet for Sarr to score, the numbers make plenty of appeal considering his recent form.
There's enough evidence mounting to suggest the draw is being underestimated again here at 13/5 with Sky Bet.
Neither side arrives in convincing winning form and that usually creates value in a market many punters are reluctant to back. Everton are without a win in their last five Premier League games - their longest winless run of the season - while Sunderland have failed to win any of their last four, drawing their last two.
The draw itself continues to be one of the most underrated betting angles in the Premier League. Across the last 70 top-flight matches, the stalemate has clicked at a healthy 33 per cent strike-rate, yet prices often continue to drift beyond value territory because bettors naturally gravitate towards picking winners.
A low-margin affair looks on the cards.
James Justin's new role at left wing-back is throwing up one of the more interesting player prop angles in the Premier League right now.
The market still seems to be pricing him like a conventional defender when, in reality, his positioning and shot volume are much closer to an attacking wing-back encouraged to drive inside and pull the trigger whenever possible.
Across his last five starts in that role, he's averaging 2.44 shots per game - a huge number for a player still largely viewed through a defensive lens by bookmakers. At 9/4 with Sky Bet for two or more shots, the numbers suggest we're still ahead of the market adjustment on his role.
This feels like one of those classic end-of-season fixtures where motivation and mentality matter just as much as form figures.
On paper, Fulham should probably be shorter than 17/20 with Sky Bet against a Wolves side that are stumbling towards the finish line after a miserable campaign. But backing Marco Silva's team at odds-on away from home at this stage of the season has become a dangerous game.
Fulham's April and May record under Silva raises some serious concerns. They've lost 13 of their last 22 Premier League matches played across those months, developing a frustrating habit of fading badly once the campaign drifts towards its conclusion.
There's more than a hint of "on the beach" syndrome about them.
And there are still reasons to think Wolves can summon one final response at Molineux.
Home advantage remains significant for them and this looks the type of scrappy, emotional contest where three points could be grabbed versus opponents who may already have one eye on summer holidays.
At 14/5 with Sky Bet, Wolves look overpriced
The final weeks of a campaign are one of my favourite periods for targeting second-half goals, specifically backing there to be more goals scored after the break than before it. You can get Evens on the second half producing more goals than the first with Sky Bet.
It's one of those angles that doesn't always look sexy on paper but the psychology of football at this stage of the season creates the perfect storm for late chaos where tactical discipline disappears when games become stretched.
That motivation imbalance tends to grow stronger as matches wear on. The team needing points keeps pushing while the other mentally checks out once the intensity rises. That's on the cards here.
West Ham are a second-half team too, scoring 13 goals after the break in their last 14 games. In eight of those matches there have been more second half goals than the first. A late salvo to heap pressure on Spurs is the way to play this.
Arsenal are now within touching distance. Mikel Arteta's side know the equation. Beat already-relegated Burnley at the Emirates before a final-day trip to a Crystal Palace side likely to have one eye firmly fixed on their cup final. It's opened up beautifully.
This Burnley clash looks about as close to a mismatch as the Premier League can offer. The Clarets have won just one of their last 27 league games. The market has Burnley at 18/1 - a price that would make an away victory the biggest shock result in Premier League history based on pre-match odds.
I'd expect Arsenal to start aggressively, pin Burnley deep early and simply overwhelm them through territory and pressure.
Everything points towards a routine home win and potentially a very one-sided evening.
